AUGUST 14, 2018 — A new survey of likely general election voters in New York’s 27th Congressional district shows that several potential GOP contenders have a very good chance of holding on to this seat in November.
In a district that has seen its fair share of controversy in recent days, several potential Republican candidates to replace retiring Congressman Chris Collins fare very well. Four potential GOP candidates currently hold double-digit leads over Democrat Nate McMurray: Pat Gallivan and Stefan Mychajliw are the two strongest contenders, with 20- and 13-point leads over McMurray, respectively. Chris Jacobs, and Carl Paladino all perform well against the Democrat as well.
Paladino is by far the most recognized name among the potential GOP field, with 92% of voters registering an opinion of him. But that’s not necessarily a good thing for him: Mr. Paladino is underwater with voters, clocking in with 42/50 fav/unfav ratings.
Both Mychajliw and Gallivan have strong fav/unfav ratios that hover around 2:1, and are relatively well known: both have an awareness level of around 68% among likely general election voters.
Mr. McMurray is not as well-known as some of his strongest potential GOP opponents, with his overall awareness level at 54%. Among those who have an opinion of Mr. McMurray, more see him positively than negatively, with his fav/unfav rating of 31/23.
President Donald Trump is popular in the district, and viewed favorably by over 57% of likely voters and unfavorably by 42%.
Clout Research does not work for any current or potential candidate in this race.